The global shipping industry is turning its attention to the Red Sea as fears grow that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could become the next major maritime chokepoint if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
Read also: Strait of Hormuz Traffic Drops to 11 Ships on July 12 Amid US-Iran Strikes
With the Strait of Hormuz still operating under severe disruption, energy analysts warn that any interference at Bab el-Mandeb could place even greater strain on global oil supplies by threatening the region’s second key export route.
Saudi Oil Exports Shift to the Red Sea
Following the disruption of shipping through Hormuz after the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel intensified earlier this year, Saudi Arabia significantly increased crude exports through its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu.
Shipping data shows crude shipments from Yanbu have surged to around 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks, compared with less than 1 million barrels per day during the same period last year.
Overall, petroleum flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait climbed to approximately 7.4 million barrels per day in June, representing about 7% of global oil production and highlighting the growing importance of the route to international energy markets.
The increase has helped offset part of the disruption caused by the Hormuz crisis and has limited further spikes in global oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is also reportedly evaluating plans to expand pipeline capacity connecting its eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals, reducing future dependence on Hormuz.
New Risks for Global Shipping
Despite the growing reliance on the Red Sea corridor, security concerns remain high.
Industry observers warn that any sustained attacks on commercial vessels, ports, or energy infrastructure around Bab el-Mandeb could trigger another major disruption to global supply chains.
Unlike the previous Red Sea crisis, Gulf oil exports are now increasingly being loaded from Red Sea ports, meaning any interruption could directly affect millions of barrels of crude moving to international markets.
Houthi Threat Returns to Focus
Much of the concern centers on Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has previously demonstrated its ability to disrupt commercial shipping in the region.
The group first emerged during the 1990s before becoming one of the principal factions in Yemen’s prolonged civil conflict. Although often aligned politically with Iran, the Houthis maintain that they operate independently and reject claims that they function solely as an Iranian proxy.
Recent tensions have again placed the organization under the spotlight.
Following military activity involving Iran and regional forces, senior Houthi officials warned that continued escalation could result in the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising fresh concerns for international shipping companies.
Lessons From the Previous Red Sea Crisis
The shipping industry is already familiar with the consequences of instability in the Red Sea.
Beginning in late 2023, repeated Houthi attacks on commercial vessels forced many of the world’s largest carriers—including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd—to suspend Red Sea transits and reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.
The diversions significantly increased voyage times, fuel costs, insurance premiums, and container freight rates while disrupting global supply chains.
Although a multinational naval coalition later helped improve maritime security, many carriers only recently began cautiously returning to Red Sea services.
Limited Military Activity During Current Conflict
Compared with other Iranian-aligned groups operating across the region, the Houthis have played a relatively restrained role during the latest conflict.
While Hezbollah and several Iraqi militias quickly launched attacks after hostilities escalated, Houthi involvement has remained limited to a handful of missile and drone launches targeting Israel.
Analysts believe the group may be deliberately preserving the threat of disrupting Red Sea shipping as a strategic option should the regional conflict widen further.
Iranian military officials have repeatedly suggested the Houthis could target commercial navigation if tensions continue, although no large-scale campaign against shipping has yet materialized.
Shipping Industry Watches Closely
For global shipping companies, insurers, and energy markets, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has become the next major area of concern.
With Hormuz already under pressure, any disruption to Red Sea traffic would affect two of the world’s most important maritime trade corridors simultaneously—an outcome that could tighten global oil supplies, drive freight costs higher, and create fresh volatility across international supply chains.
For now, commercial traffic continues through the Red Sea, but industry stakeholders are closely monitoring developments as geopolitical tensions remain elevated and the risk of further disruption persists.
