Saudi Arabia is pushing forward with an initiative to exclude Israel from the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project and reroute cargo through Syria instead of Israel, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project is a plan to transport goods between the Indian subcontinent and Europe via the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Greece, announced by US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in September 2023.
Initially, as part of the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the railway line was supposed to pass through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel, from where the goods would be transported to Europe via the port of Haifa. However, the difficulties in advancing this normalization and the changes in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Aden region have forced Saudi Arabia to reconsider its path.
Another Gulf country that is beginning to resent Israel’s long-standing influence is Qatar. According to German media reports, Volkswagen’s planned defense agreement with Israel has been blocked by Qatari investors. Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, Volkswagen’s third-largest shareholder, reportedly rejected a proposal to produce components for missile systems at Volkswagen’s Osnabrück plant.
In contrast to Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s intentions to thwart Israeli ambitions, the United States, along with Israel and Azerbaijan, is advancing the Zangezur Corridor project, seeking to disrupt Iran’s trade, energy, and transportation routes in the north and to position its military power along the northern border.
According to some sources, Azerbaijani leaders and their Turkish supporters are seeking to seize control of Iran’s northern provinces, inhabited by ethnic Azeris. To this end, they have been conducting clandestine influence operations in those areas for years. Azerbaijan is a major energy supplier to Israel. Azerbaijani crude oil accounted for 46.4% of Israel’s oil imports in 2025.
Baku purchases a wide range of advanced Israeli defense systems, focusing on air and missile defense, long-range strike weapons, drones, and intelligence technology.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are trying to find a compromise; Turkey, willingly or not, will be the deciding factor in the new Middle East. Israel, through Energy Minister Eli Cohen, declared in recent days that Israel will respond with similar measures to any Turkish military presence in Syria, stating that for every Turkish military base, an Israeli base will be established in the same area. In reality, Israel has taken Mount Hermon and the Syrian Druze area.
Turkey, on the other hand, has never welcomed the new gas pipeline so strongly desired by Israel to Cyprus. Cohen continues: “The pipeline planned for Cyprus will be built, rejecting any opposition.”
It is a 200-kilometer pipeline that will connect the Israeli gas fields of Karish and Tanin (2.4 trillion cubic feet of reserves) to Cyprus. The estimated capacity: 0.5 to 1 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The Developer: Energean, which has invested $1.6 billion in the gas fields, will also participate in the pipeline’s construction, with Greece and Cyprus having “no interest” in Turkish participation.
While Turkey has long sought a role in any Mediterranean gas pipeline project, aiming to become an international hub, especially in the Middle East, Tel Aviv increasingly views Ankara as a major strategic threat in the region. It’s not just about gas; it’s about negotiating power.
Israel, on the other hand, is building an energy corridor that bypasses Turkey, effectively excluding it from the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy future. Erdogan is not the type to passively accept exclusion. The pipeline may be underwater, but the conflict could arise above ground.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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