Global trade grew by about 4 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, despite geopolitical tensions and concerns over supply chains, according to a United Nations report.
Goods trade rose by 4.8 per cent quarter on quarter, while services trade grew by 1.6 per cent, the latest Global Trade Update by the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD) agency said. UNCTAD’s nowcast suggests trade will grow further in the second quarter, particularly in goods. But the agency said much of the increase reflects higher prices rather than stronger trade volumes.
It attributed the rise in trade inflation during the first half of 2026 to higher energy, transport, logistics and production costs. The report said global trade continues to face uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies and supply chain disruptions.
The outlook comes amid heightened uncertainty following the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which renewed concerns over global supply chains and energy security. Although active hostilities have eased, tensions continue to pose risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil and liquefied natural gas trade.
UNCTAD said disruptions to logistics, shipping routes and supply chains, combined with higher transport and energy costs, could weigh on global trade, business confidence, investment and economic growth, while adding to inflationary pressure and trade fragmentation.
