Editor’s note: Zaur Nurmamedov is a journalist and a graduate of the Faculty of Political Science at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (1993–1999). He previously served as first deputy editor-in-chief of the Vesti.Az news portal (2009–2023). The views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the position of News.Az.
For decades, the South Caucasus was largely perceived as a space between major powers — Russia, Türkiye, Iran and Europe. The region was commonly viewed through the prism of conflicts, energy resources and competition among external actors. However, the rapid transformation of global trade routes is giving it an entirely new significance.
Today, the South Caucasus is evolving from a geographical periphery into one of the key hubs of Eurasia’s emerging trade architecture. It is here that the interests of China, the European Union, Türkiye, Central Asian countries and the Caspian states increasingly intersect. Azerbaijan occupies a central position within this system, connecting the eastern and western shores of the Caspian Sea and providing Central Asian countries with access to European markets.
The war in Ukraine, the sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, instability in the Middle East, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have forced governments and international companies to reassess traditional supply chains. As a result, the Middle Corridor, until recently considered a secondary route, is becoming a strategic necessity.
Eurasia needs a new trade route
For many years, most overland freight between China and Europe travelled through Russia. Maritime cargo passed through the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
Image: Getty Images
Both routes are now associated with growing risks.
The northern land route has been affected by sanctions and political confrontation. Maritime transport remains the most capacious option, but it takes considerably longer and depends on several vulnerable chokepoints — the Strait of Malacca, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal.
Escalating tensions in the Red Sea have already forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing journey times, fuel expenses and insurance costs.
Against this background, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor, offers a fundamentally different geography.
The corridor runs from China through Kazakhstan, crosses the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and continues through Georgia and Türkiye to European markets. With efficient coordination, cargo can be transported along this route in approximately 12 to 15 days, while maritime delivery from China to Europe often takes between 35 and 45 days.
The Middle Corridor cannot yet compete with maritime routes in terms of capacity. Its strategic value, however, lies elsewhere: it provides China, Central Asia and Europe with a route that does not depend on Russia’s transport network, Iran or the unstable maritime chokepoints of the Middle East.
Growth that can no longer be ignored
Freight dynamics confirm the route’s growing importance. While less than one million tonnes of cargo travelled through the Middle Corridor annually only a few years ago, the volume subsequently increased severalfold, approaching 4.5 million tonnes.
The World Bank estimates that the corridor’s potential is considerably greater. With modernised ports, railways, digital systems and border procedures, freight volumes could triple by 2030, reaching approximately 11 million tonnes. Delivery times between China and Europe could also be reduced by almost half.
This would still represent only a small proportion of total trade between Asia and Europe. Yet the importance of the corridor cannot be measured exclusively in tonnes. It creates an additional route, reduces dependence on individual countries and maritime chokepoints, and provides Central Asian states with direct access to European markets.
A new system of infrastructural and political interests is therefore emerging around the Middle Corridor.
Azerbaijan as the corridor’s central link
Geography makes Azerbaijan an indispensable element of the new Eurasian route. Geography alone, however, is not enough. For years, the country has invested heavily in railways, motorways, ports, shipbuilding and logistics centres.
The Baku International Sea Trade Port in Alat plays a particularly important role. Its current handling capacity is approximately 15 million tonnes of cargo and 100,000 twenty-foot equivalent container units annually. Following the completion of the next phase of expansion, its capacity is expected to reach 25 million tonnes and 500,000 containers per year.
Alat is no longer simply a port. A free economic zone is being developed around it, bringing together maritime transport, rail logistics, road freight, warehousing and industrial production.
In the future, goods passing through Alat will not only be transferred between different modes of transport. They can also be processed, assembled, packaged and redistributed to different markets. Azerbaijan therefore intends to benefit not merely from transit fees but from the creation of additional economic value.
Connections between the Kazakh ports of Aktau and Kuryk, the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi and Azerbaijan’s Alat Port are essential to the Middle Corridor’s operation. The Caspian Sea is thus becoming a bridge, rather than a barrier, between Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
The Caspian section nevertheless remains one of the route’s most complicated components. Additional vessels, greater container capacity, modern terminals and coordinated timetables are required. A delayed ferry or prolonged customs procedure at one port can eliminate the time advantage of the entire corridor.
Baku–Tbilisi–Kars: A railway bridge to Europe
After arriving in Alat, cargo can continue along the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, which connects Azerbaijan with Georgia and Türkiye.
Image: Getty Images
Following modernisation, the freight capacity of the line was increased from one million to approximately five million tonnes annually. This helped remove one of the Middle Corridor’s primary infrastructure bottlenecks and strengthened the land connection between the Caspian Sea and the Turkish railway network.
Through Türkiye, freight gains access to European markets, including via the Marmaray railway tunnel beneath the Bosphorus. A continuous transport chain is consequently taking shape from China and Central Asia to Southern and Central Europe.
For Türkiye, the route has a dual significance. First, it strengthens the country’s position as a major transport and logistics hub between Asia and Europe. Second, the Middle Corridor provides an infrastructural foundation for deepening Türkiye’s relations with Azerbaijan and other Turkic states.
Ankara regards this system not only as a commercial initiative but also as a long-term instrument of geoeconomic influence.
The Zangezur route and a new communications map
Another potential component of Eurasia’s transport architecture is the opening of the Zangezur route, which would establish a direct land connection between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and, from there, Türkiye.
Its significance extends far beyond Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. If implemented, the route would provide an additional branch of the Middle Corridor and diversify railway and road connections between the Caspian region, the South Caucasus and Türkiye.
Participation in regional transport projects could also offer Armenia considerable economic advantages, including transit revenues, investment, new employment opportunities and a gradual emergence from decades of infrastructural isolation.
For this to happen, however, transport connectivity must be separated from the politics of confrontation. All parties require security guarantees, predictable transport regulations and respect for national sovereignty.
The opening of regional communications could transform the entire model of the South Caucasus. Instead of remaining a region divided by closed borders, it could become a space of economic interdependence. Such interdependence often creates a more durable foundation for peace than political declarations alone.
Central Asia emerges from transport isolation
For Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the Middle Corridor offers an opportunity to reduce excessive dependence on a limited number of external routes.
Central Asian countries possess substantial reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium, copper, rare-earth minerals and other commodities needed by the global economy. However, their lack of direct access to the world’s oceans raises export costs and restricts access to international markets.
Kazakhstan is already increasing shipments across the Caspian Sea and through Azerbaijan. The transit of Kazakh oil through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline is also becoming increasingly important. Baku and Astana have discussed gradually raising these shipments to between five and seven million tonnes per year.
Approximately 1.4 million tonnes of Kazakh oil were transported through Azerbaijan in 2023, with volumes rising in subsequent years. This is particularly important for Kazakhstan, whose oil exports have traditionally depended heavily on infrastructure passing through Russia.
Uzbekistan is similarly interested in gaining access to the Trans-Caspian route, as its growing industrial sector requires faster and more diversified export channels.
The Middle Corridor is therefore becoming more than a transport project for Central Asia. It is a strategic initiative capable of expanding the region’s economic and foreign policy autonomy.
Why China and the European Union need the route
For China, the Middle Corridor represents an additional route within the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing is not interested in abandoning either maritime trade or the northern land corridor. Its strategy is based on diversification: the greater the number of routes connecting the Chinese economy with foreign markets, the lower the risks created by possible blockades or political pressure.
The corridor also enables China to strengthen its position in Central Asia without entering into direct confrontation with other regional powers. Investment in railways, dry ports and logistics creates long-term economic interdependence.
The European Union, meanwhile, is interested in resilient supply chains, access to Central Asian resources and the development of routes bypassing Russia. Brussels has already expressed its readiness to mobilise approximately €10 billion to develop sustainable transport connections between Europe and Central Asia.
For the EU, the project is not solely about trade. Central Asia possesses critical raw materials required for batteries, electronics, renewable energy technologies and the defence industry.
Within this system, the South Caucasus serves as a bridge connecting Central Asia’s resources, Türkiye’s manufacturing and logistics capabilities, and Europe’s markets.
The corridor must become a unified system
Despite its considerable potential, the Middle Corridor remains a collection of national sections rather than a fully integrated transport system.
Cargo crosses several borders, changes modes of transport, undergoes repeated customs procedures and must be transloaded twice while crossing the Caspian Sea. Differences in tariffs, documentation and technical standards increase both costs and delivery times.
To transform the route into a competitive commercial artery, its participating countries need a unified tariff system, digital transport documentation, coordinated customs procedures and reliable schedules for trains and ships. Companies must know not only how much transportation will cost but also when their goods are guaranteed to arrive.
Investment in the Caspian container fleet, the expansion of Aktau, Kuryk and Alat ports, the modernisation of Georgia’s railway network and the continued development of the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway are equally important.
The corridor’s future will depend not on a single megaproject, but on the removal of dozens of smaller administrative and infrastructural barriers.
From a geography of conflict to a geography of cooperation
The South Caucasus is gaining new importance not because traditional routes are disappearing. Maritime trade and northern railway lines will retain their roles. But the global economy can no longer rely on only one or two major transport directions. It requires a network of complementary routes capable of continuing to operate during wars, sanctions, blockades and regional crises.
The Middle Corridor meets this need. It connects China and Central Asia with Europe, creates new opportunities for Türkiye and turns Azerbaijan into a central link in Eurasian logistics.
Yet the most important transformation is not taking place on railway maps. It is occurring in the way the region itself is perceived.
The South Caucasus is no longer a remote territory situated between major centres of power. It is becoming the space through which those centres are connected.
If transport projects are accompanied by political stability, regional peace and coordinated economic rules, the South Caucasus can move from a geography of conflict to a geography of cooperation.
In Eurasia’s new trade architecture, the region’s importance will no longer be determined by the powers between which it is located, but by the number of countries and markets it is capable of connecting.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at [email protected]).