The resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran has undone the fragile recovery in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes collapsing once again. Before the US-Israel-Iran war broke out in February, an average of 130 vessels transited the strait daily, but that figure dropped by over 90% during the conflict. After a brief recovery to more than 70 daily transits following a June 14 agreement, renewed attacks have pushed traffic down to just nine ships on Wednesday, down from 13 on Tuesday.
Potential Transit Fees and Inflationary Pressure
US President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a blockade and proposed a 20% transit fee, though he later shifted to trade and investment deals with Gulf countries. German logistics giant Hapag-Lloyd has said such a fee on international waters would be wrong. Bilgehan Engin, president of UTİKAD, warned that any increase in transit costs at the strategic waterway would be passed on to freight rates. “An increase in energy transportation costs could affect many sectors and fuel inflationary pressures worldwide,” he said.
Resilience and Adaptation in Logistics
Engin noted that the global logistics sector has adapted to high-risk environments following the pandemic, the Ukraine war and Red Sea security issues, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical vulnerability. He said shipowners and shippers would update their risk analyses, driving up insurance and security costs, which would be passed on to energy and raw material supply chains. Companies are now prioritising supply chain continuity over cost, he said, urging a commitment to free passage as enshrined in international law.
