A Credit and caution The article analyzed the effects that the conflict in the Middle East has had on the world economy since the beginning of the war in Iran on February 28th. In just a few days, the Strait of Hormuz became a pressure point with an immediate impact on energy prices, maritime transport, trade flows, and operational costs, among other aspects. All of this is causing a domino effect on the world economy.
After the first half of the year, global economic growth is expected to slow to 2,4% in 2026, below the post-pandemic average. It should be noted that economic dynamism is showing divergences. While in advanced economies it is slowing to around 1,5%, in emerging markets it is estimated to grow by 3,7%, below the historical average.
This slowdown is largely due to rising energy prices, disruptions in maritime transport, and high uncertainty. Economies that import raw materials are particularly exposed to these pressures.
The situation in the Middle East is also affecting inflation trends, with global levels expected to reach 4,8% in 2026, mainly due to rising energy prices, triggering effects in the manufacturing and transport sectors. This scenario paints a more complex monetary environment, and central banks are likely to remain cautious, postponing rate cuts and possibly tightening monetary policy further if inflation proves persistent.
It is also influencing investment decisions, as seen in the Gulf countries, where investments in infrastructure, alternative trade routes, and strategic capacity are accelerating. These efforts aim to reduce dependence on vulnerable chokepoints and strengthen long-term stability.
According to Niels de Hoog, senior economist at Atradius Crédito y Caución: “Before the conflict, countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar competed intensely to position themselves as global AI hubs, investing heavily in digital infrastructure and attracting large technology companies. However, recent attacks on data centers have revealed a new vulnerability. These facilities are no longer just commercial assets, but have become critical infrastructure. As a result, geopolitical risk now plays a much more prominent role in investment decisions.“.
The crisis also highlighted the vulnerabilities of global trade. The disruption of shipping routes, which affected around 2.000 vessels, underscored the fragility of key supply chains. In response, companies and governments are not only addressing immediate bottlenecks but also accelerating efforts to diversify routes and redesign logistics networks.
